The Impact of Stock Market, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate and Gold Prıces on The Development of The Bankıng Sector

Abstract

The banking sector, which is one of the important factors of financial markets, is affected by investment instruments such as stock exchanges, exchange rates, interest rates and gold, which are important variables of financial markets and macroeconomics. The aim of this study is to determine the impact of stock market, exchange rate, interest rate and gold prices on the development of the banking sector. For this purpose, a VAR model was constructed and analyzed with daily time series data for the period 05/02/2013-07/29/2022. According to the results of the Granger causality test conducted to determine the causality relationship between the variables, it is determined that there is a causality relationship from Gold, Stock Exchange and Dollar variables to the Bank variable and from the Bank variable to Gold, Dollar and Interest rate variables. When the variance decomposition results are analyzed, it is determined that the Bank variable is affected by 100% of its own shocks on the first day and 98% at the end of the tenth day, while it is not affected by the shocks of all other variables on the first day.